Newsflash


Falling house prices are still a problem. Could Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac be part of the solution?

The government is moving forward on a plan to reduce foreclosures by guaranteeing some troubled mortgages after lenders agree to reduce loan balances. But while that $50 billion program will help some troubled homeowners, by consensus it will take a broader solution if the feds are to have any success in slowing the house-price declines that are wreaking havoc on financial institutions.

The answer, some market observers propose, is to bolster housing demand by bringing down mortgage rates. And one way to do that, believe it or not, involves another federal takeover of Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500) - this time, for good. The mortgage giants were partially nationalized last month in an earlier, unsuccessful government-led effort to ease the problems in the housing market.

"If you're trying to stimulate demand, the best way is to bring down mortgage rates," says Len Blum, a managing director at New York investment bank Westwood Capital. "Doing that attacks two of the big problems in housing right now."

Blum sees three primary factors driving house prices lower. Sale prices, despite the plunge of the past year, remain above rental rates in most markets. Meanwhile the inventory of houses for sale remains near record levels, while mortgages are largely unavailable except for the most creditworthy borrowers. All of these factors tend to reduce either the pool of interested home buyers or the prices they'll pay.

Blum says one possible solution is for the feds to fully nationalize the companies, eliminating the public-private hybrid structure that survived September's partial takeover and bringing their debt onto the Treasury's balance sheet. Once Fannie and Freddie are explicitly part of the government, they should be able to borrow at Treasury rates, which are substantially lower than the rates the so-called government-sponsored enterprises have been forced to pay since their finances came into question earlier this year.

That should help bring down the effective cost of buying a house. A full nationalization of Fannie and Freddie could conceivably allow the companies to shave rates on 30-year conforming mortgages by as much as 2 percentage points, to around 4.5%.

Shaving 2 percentage points off the rate on a $200,000 mortgage could save the buyer around $250 a month, he says. The difference could be particularly telling for buyers who borrow through the Federal Housing Administration, which requires smaller downpayments than private lenders in midst of the credit crunch.

"A program like this allows more homeowners into the market," says Blum. Investment strategist Ed Yardeni, who advocates a similar plan, says adopting it should "revive the economy very quickly."

Another bazooka?

There are risks, of course, as the Treasury learned in its earlier dealings with Fannie and Freddie. In July, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asked Congress for the authority to invest in the companies. Invoking his now infamous bazooka analogy, Paulson said he believed he'd never have to use the money, because the sight of a huge federal credit line would scare the companies' detractors out of the market and bring down the rates they were paying to borrow.

As it turned out, Paulson did have to fire the bazooka, putting the companies into government conservatorship - but even that didn't bring down Fannie and Freddie's rates for long. One reason lies in the mayhem that followed Treasury's takeover of the companies, including the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the near bankruptcy of AIG (AIG, Fortune 500). All these factors conspired to drive investors away from assets riskier than Treasury securities, including so-called agency securities - the bonds Fannie and Freddie sell to finance their operations.

This time around, the biggest worry stems from the fact that a full takeover would add to the federal balance sheet, at a time when taxpayers are already running a tab on the bailout of the financial industry and various fiscal stimulus plans.

For years, economists have warned that Americans' habit of spending beyond their income and borrowing the difference from overseas is unsustainable. At any time, the thinking goes, the foreign central banks that buy huge amounts of U.S. government debt might shy away, forcing interest rates here higher.

"That's really the $64 trillion question," says David Merkel, chief economist at Finacorp Securities. "How well are we able to borrow in that environment?"

But so far, so good. Despite the rising tab of cleaning up the meltdown, the U.S. for now remains in what appears relatively safe territory, with federal borrowing recently tabbed at about 83% of gross domestic product. Merkel says buyers of government bonds typically "tend to start choking" on new issues when borrowing reaches around 150%.

What's more, there has been no lack of demand for Treasuries during the financial crisis - a trend some observers expect to continue in what's shaping up as an era of rather limited investment options.

"The U.S. was supposedly the basket case nation with the massive deficits whose currency was destined to lose its reserve status and whose credit rating was going to get cut at some point," writes Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg. "It appears that the full faith of Uncle Sam must still mean something, even as contingent liabilities head to the stratosphere."  

 

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Federer Outlasts Roddick to Win WimbledonPDF Print E-mail
Written by Admin
Sunday, 05 July 2009
Published: July 5, 2009
 
Srdjan Suki/European Pressphoto Agency

Roger Federer with the championship trophy after winning the men's singles final match against Andy Roddick at Wimbledon in London on Sunday.

 

WIMBLEDON, England — Andy Roddick had hoped to make Roger Federer wait for another Grand Slam tournament to win his record 15th singles title.

But despite playing what looked very much like the match of his life on Sunday, Roddick could only succeed in delaying Federer’s celebration on Centre Court.

On and on the fifth set stretched, further than any fifth set has ever stretched in a Grand Slam singles final. But in the end, Federer’s phenomenal serving was just a bit better than Roddick’s phenomenal serving.

Cruel as the idea began to seem, the match had to finish. When it did with a forehand mishit error from Roddick, Federer roared and walked to the net all alone in the history books after breaking his tie with Pete Sampras, who is now second on the career list with 14 major singles titles.

“Sorry Pete; I tried to hold him off,” said Roddick to Sampras, who was sitting in the front row of the royal box after flying in from Los Angeles on Sunday morning.

Sampras certainly got his money’s worth for the trip as Federer held off Roddick by the unprecedented score of 5-7, 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5), 3-6, 16-14.

Federer, who has now won Wimbledon six times, served a personal record 50 aces in a match that took 4 hours 18 minutes. But Roddick was, on balance, the more successful server: holding 37 times in a row before finally being broken in the last game.

“It was a crazy match with an unbelievable end, and my head is still spinning,” Federer said in his post-match remarks to the Centre Court crowd. “But it’s an unbelievable moment in my career.”

It was also a much happier ending at Wimbledon for Federer than last year, when he lost one of the greatest matches in tennis history against his Spanish nemesis Rafael Nadal. There was no chance of a replay this year after Nadal withdrew from the tournament before it began with knee problems.

But this year’s final, a very different spectacle in terms of rhythm and tactics, certainly deserves a place on the short list of great Wimbledon matches, as well.

“It was an epic, it really was,” said Sampras, looking and sounding weary with the jet lag and his long day in the front row that he shared with the other former tennis greats Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg and Manuel Santana.

“He’s a friend, a great player, a good guy,” Sampras said of Federer. “Fourteen is a lot in the ’90s. He’s got 15. He could get 17, 18 majors when it’s all done. He’s a stud.”

But it was difficult on Federer’s latest big day to focus too heavily on him.

“I feel bad for Andy; I really do,” Sampras said. “This was his chance. He came up short. The great ones, at the end, they have just a little bit more.”

Roddick, a 26-year-old American, has long been Federer’s foil, losing 18 of their 20 previous matches and never even pushing Federer to a fifth set in their seven meetings in Grand Slam tournaments.

He was beaten by Federer in the 2004 and 2005 Wimbledon finals and lost to him again in the 2006 United States Open final. But at a stage in his career when others might have lost faith or motivation, Roddick has improved his game and fitness, shuffled his support team once more by hiring Larry Stefanki as his coach, and become better at channeling his considerable ambition and nervous energy into the tennis task at hand.

Roddick held it together remarkably well on Sunday, even after he blew a huge opportunity to win the second-set tie breaker, which he led by 6-2. But Federer managed to reel off the next six points to even the match at one-set apiece as Roddick failed to convert on any of his four set points. The one that will surely stick with him is the fourth, which he squandered at 6-5 by missing a high backhand volley with Federer out of position and a relatively open court available.

Roddick left Centre Court immediately and when he returned he still looked disoriented, heading to the wrong side of the court and asking for the ball when in fact it was Federer’s turn to serve. But to his credit, Roddick kept his focus and kept slamming in huge serves under pressure, but not only huge serves.

His two-handed backhand, once considered a major liability, was a strength, and he hit multiple passing shot winners down the line with Federer pushing forward. Roddick also volleyed well himself, hitting crisp and intelligent approach shots against a man whose whipping topspin passing shots are among the best in the sport.

Even the baseline rallies, which have favored Federer in their previous matches, were more balanced. But this match was not defined by the ground strokes. It was defined by the serving as Federer and Roddick hit aces and winners in bunches; they combined for 77 aces and 181 winners. They kept the rallies short and the marathon match moving along at a much brisker pace than last year’s epic tussle between Federer and Nadal, which took 4 hours 48 minutes.

It was not until 10-10 that the fifth set passed the four-hour mark.

 

 

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